秘书 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 40-47.

• 校庆专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于水污染跨域合作治理的情景鲁棒性谈判预算成本研究

李焕欢,纪颖   

  1. 青岛大学,上海大学
  • 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-10-18
  • 作者简介:李焕欢,青岛大学商学院博士后。研究方向:群决策理论与应用、组合优化、运筹与管理。纪颖(通讯作者),上海大学管理学院教授。研究方向:决策科学、数据分析、组合优化。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目不确定环境下的多目标鲁棒凸规划博弈研究72171149);上海市哲学社会科学基金项目大数据环境下公共卫生系统疾病防控重大风险研判、评估和决策研究2020BGL010

Study on Budget Cost of Scenario Robust Negotiation Based on Cross-domain Cooperative Governance of Water Pollution

LI HuanhuanJI Ying   

  • Online:2022-09-15 Published:2022-10-18

摘要:

现阶段,跨域水污染事件的频频发生引发了诸多社会问题。尽管相关地方政府以及主管部门陆续出台了一系列政策和规定以治理跨域水污染,但是成效并不十分理想。怎样合作治理跨域水污染并就此制定统一的标准,成为目前相关职能部门必须重点关注的问题。水污染跨域合作治理过程中,制定谈判预算的决策环境是复杂多变的,这使得决策专家很难用具体数字来表达对决策信息的准确判断。基于水污染协同治理的背景,运用群体决策理论中的最小成本共识模型,构建情景鲁棒性最小谈判成本模型,以期用最少的预算完成水污染治理谈判。情景鲁棒思维可以根据实际需要有效降低水污染跨域合作治理中的不确定性,帮助决策者在复杂和不确定的决策环境下作出更为稳健、有效的决策。数值实验表明,所构建的模型可以根据实际情况制定有效的预算方案,通过开展周边水污染联合防治,共同解决水污染跨域合作治理谈判的预算制定问题。

关键词:

水污染跨域治理, 随机情景, 鲁棒性, 最小成本共识模型, 谈判预算

Abstract:

At present,with the frequent occurrence of transboundary water pollution incidents,many social problems have been caused. Although relevant local governments and competent departments have successively issued relevant policies and regulations to control transboundary water pollution,the results are not very satisfactory. Therefore,how to strengthen the treatment of transboundary water pollution? How to set unified standards on trans-regional water pollution control? This has also become the focus of the relevant functional departments. In the process of the actual cross-regional cooperation in water pollution control,the decision-making environment of negotiating budget costs is complex and changeable,which makes it difficult for decision-making experts to use specific values to express the accurate judgment of decision-making information. Based on the background of collaborative water management and the minimum cost consensus model in group decision theory,this paper constructs a scenario robustness minimum negotiation cost model for the purpose of completing water pollution control negotiations with the minimum budget. In view of the fact that scenario robust thinking can effectively reduce the uncertainty in cross-domain cooperative governance of water pollution according to actual needs,it helps decision makers to make more robust and effective decisions in complex and uncertain decision environments. Numerical experiments show that the model can make effective budget plans according to the actual situation,and jointly solve the budget formulation problem in the cross-regional cooperative governance of water pollution by carrying out the joint prevention and control of the surrounding boundary water pollution environment.


Key words:

cross-regional governance of water pollution, random scenario, robust, minimum cost consensus model, negotiation budget