关键词: RCEP, 贸易效应, 贸易创造, GTAP

Abstract: RCEP has greatly promoted the international trade and economic development of its member countries. To further study the economic impact of RCEP on its members, this paper employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, to simulate the trade effects of RCEP with full implementation of the clauses on tariff and non-tariff barrier, with a focus on non-tariff barrier reduction under different scenarios. The trade effects are decomposed into four indicators: trade creation, economic growth, terms of trade and social welfare. The simulation results show that the implementation of RCEP significantly improves the trade effects of its member countries, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers brings more significant trade creation and economic growth effects than tariff reduction only. Moreover, RCEP can effectively mediate the terms of trade and social welfare of its member countries. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the formulation and implementation of behind-border measures such as non-tariff barriers in international trade cooperation.

Key words: RCEP, trade effects, trade creation, GTA